Machine Gun Bow

[Doug M.]

Following on from the Woollongong competition, and some tests I ran, is Bw(S) at 6 AP now the decisive weapon on the battlefield?

if not shot at, factor 3 vs 'Others' - then +1 for 2nd rank, then +1 if more when shooting, then grading factors vs (I) or (F) is another -1 for shooting.

So assume Pk(I) vs Bw(S), starting factor is Bw 4 vs Pk 3. I am not sure of the math but here goes...   17/36 times the Bow will destroy a Pike.

Better than one shot in two...  even if the Pike roll 5, they are still killed by 6.. 

D.

[Aloysius the Gaul]

Pk(I) have always been bow-toast and using them to "show" that bow are overpowered is pretty cheap!

What are the odds vs Sp(O)? 

3+1 for 2nd rank = 4, vs 4 - 1/36 chance of a kill, 15/36 chance of the Sp pressing forward.....not so flash any more.

[Doug M.]

You haven't considered that the Bow are likely to be in two ranks, and if Superior they minus 1 from their opponents score, so it becomes 4-2...  how do you feel about that?

The question i raised in any case is that it is not appropriate for Pk(I) to be so vulnerable, as thing stand they don't get into contact which is historically incorrect.

regards

[Aloysius the Gaul]

Which part of "3+1 for 2nd rank" didn't you read?

If the Bow are (S) and roll then it's 4:3 - 4/36 chance of the Sp being killed, and some lesser chance of a press forward.

Still leaves your example as a cheap shot (sic) - the best possible bow against the worst possible "heavy" foot target.

When did pike(I) ever fight Bw(S) and get into contact with them?  Most fights vs the Scots would be Bw(O) English under the current lists.

[Doug M.]

Have a look at the options for Scottish Pk(I) ally for Lancastrians vs Bw(S), also HYW English Bow vs Scottish foot in France. There are no examples of Scottish Pike being unable to close with English lines when they advanced in any Anglo-Scots battle. In most cases the English chose to deploy uphill or behind some form of obstacle, such as a ravine.

I have been arguing this for three years.

Please go back and look at the various messages/play-test from the Yahoo DBMM List, Msg nos: 31717, 25213, 24075, 23992, 15097, 33629, 16281,  14549, 13986, 4949,

critically 24836

regards

Doug

[Aloysius the Gaul]

24836 does nothing for your case - sometimes scattered Scots reached the english, or they reached the English men-at-arms with their centre while their flanks were massacred, or they stood and were massacred where they stood (Falkirk) or when they tried to advance having taken serious casualties already (Homildon).

the terrain you mention makes no difference in DBMM - bog and scrubby hills are both rough going so the Scots pike can move across them as a group at full speed.

Where's the Scots reaching the English archers?

[Doug M.]

Go back and look up some accounts of Halidon, Neville's Cross etc

The Lanercost Chronicle is a good source:

Halidon.

"the Scots who marched in the front were so wounded in the face and blinded by the multitude of English arrows that they could not help themselves, and soon began to turn their faces away from the blows of the arrows and fall."

Clearly they didn't all immediately become pin cushions, this is mind you marching through a marsh and uphill...  and Moray's, Stewart's and Douglas' schiltroms all made contact - then losing heavily in hand to hand fighting they were bunched up by archers shooting into the flanks and then broke.

Dupplin Moor.

"In this battle...more were slain by the Scots themselves than by the English. For rushing forward on each other, each crushed his neighbour, and for every one fallen there fell a second, and then a third fell, and those who were behind pressing forward and hastening to the fight, the whole army became a heap of the slain."

Against an enemy again posted on a hill, the Scots advances to contact. Bruce's Schiltrom pushes back the MAA in the centre, but in the confined space gets mixed up with Mar's and is defeated.

Neville's Cross.

The Scots stand on a hill, so do the English, bowmen sent forward gall the Scots into attacking, again despite ravine and bad going the Schiltroms make contact, again uphill, again they are broken by a combination of MAA and archers shooting into their flanks.

This is hardly the machine-gun effect that is reproduced in DBMM.

Some Primary sources you might like to look at : I would suggest you avoid the hagiographers of the longbow, Hardy, Featherstone et al.

    * Pluscarden, the Book of
    * Wyntoun, Andrew, The Original Chronicle of Scotland
    * Bower, Walter, Scotichronicon
    * Fordun, John of, Chronicles of the Scottish Nation
    * Gray, Thomas, Scalicronica
    * The Lanercost Chronicle

regards

Doug

[Aloysius the Gaul]

Ah good - some examples...mainly of Scots reaching lines and breaking shortly after because they had been massacred by the archery and couldn't face the men at arms.  there's nothing actually impossible in these accounts in DBMM either - unlikely yes, but combat is not a sure thing - all you can talk about is averages, and on average if any Scots reach the English htey will be few in number and soundly defeated shortly thereafter.

However within the bell curve there wil lbe occasions where more Scots reach the English lines too.  shrug - if war was about absolutes it would make a poor game, and arguing the point as if it were absolute is blinkered thinking at best.

Why do you keep mentioning terrain that is irrelevant?  uphil does nothting to Scots movement, and boggy ground doesn't slow it even.

You are the only source I've found for a "ravine" at Nevilles Cross - there's a lovely map of eth battlesite at the national park website (http://www.battlefieldstrust.com/resource-centre/medieval/battleview.asp?BattleFieldId=28 - check the pdf downloads on the left of the page) that shows no such ravine - where dod you get hat info from?

[Aloysius the Gaul]

Following on from the Woollongong competition, and some tests I ran, is Bw(S) at 6 AP now the decisive weapon on the battlefield?

if not shot at, factor 3 vs 'Others' - then +1 for 2nd rank, then +1 if more when shooting, then grading factors vs (I) or (F) is another -1 for shooting.

A matter of reference here - where does the "then +1 more if shooting" come from?

I'm looking at page 37 of the rules, Tactical Factors and Grading Factors, and there's no +1 that I can see for any element shooting.

The (S) grading factor gives +1 for (S) troops only in various close combat situations or if shot AT.

there is a -1 for the targets of (S) shooters if the shooters are equal or higher, combined with the -1 for being (I) lower could make a hefty -2.

so on a 1-element wide frontage, 2 ranks of Bw(S) would start at 4:3 vs Pike as far as I can see, with the Pike potentially suffering -1 if they tie, or -2 if they are lower. 

The minimum score for the pike would therefore be 3+1 (minimum dice)-2 (grade factors) = 2, for an automatic kill agaisnt a minimum roll of 5 for the Bow.

If the Pike roll a 2 they go to a total of 3, and are killed if the bow roll 2 or more.

On a 3 the pike are killed if the bow roll 4 or more (4:8 )

On a 4 they are killed vs a 6 (5:10)

Making 15/36 chance of the pike being killed - or 5/12 - ergo a 7/12 chance of surviving. 

The pike also have a chance of pressing forward - to do so they have to score higher than the bow in the pikes own bound - so they have to roll 2 higher - which gives them a 10/36 chance of moving 80p closer - and this may actually result in them making contact in their own move.


the maximum firepower situation is if the troops to teh front of hte pikemen are all archers - so let's see how that pans out:

Let's see - pike start marching at 400p - march to 240p.  Bow shoot - half the pike front rank disintigrates, 1/4-1/3 of it (a bit more than 1/2 the survivors - rough proportions) presses forward 80p. 

Bow shoot again - 1/2 front rank disintigrates again, no pressing forward.  Pike have now lost an average of 1/4 their strength - often they will have lost more so may be disheartened.

Pike advance again - any that pressed forward last time can hit the bow.  Any that do no hit the bow get shot at - half of them die, 1/4-13rd press forward and also hit the bow.

So the pike get to hit the bow well depleted in numbers and likely disheartened.

HOWEVER - any pike facing men at arms do not get shot at at all so get into contact unscathed, and any pike on the flanks probably get shot at by extra elements so suffer heavier losses.

chris - what is Traqualir's source for that?

[Doug M.]

The only small problem with your analysis, is that Bow shoot in both bounds... 

So it becomes:

>Let's see - pike start marching at 400p - march to 240p.  Bow shoot - half the pike front rank disintigrates, 1/4-1/3 of it (a bit more than 1/2 the >survivors - rough proportions) presses forward 80p.

>Bow shoot again - 1/2 front rank disintigrates again, no pressing forward.  Pike have now lost an average of 1/4 their strength - often they will >have lost more so may be disheartened.

My point. The tests I have done the whole schiltrom just disintegrates. This is not reflected in the historical record, so something is wrong with the interaction.

As for the Ravine, it is marked on the OS map as a 'steep scarp'.

regards

[Aloysius the Gaul]

Er...I did have the bow shooting in both bounds - you even quoted it, and however good they are the Bow cannot shoot more than 1 element per bound per element frontage of bow, usually less.

the steep escarpment on hte map at most only influences a small section of one flank - and according to one possible positioning of hte battle doesn't even do that.

SOME Scots may have had trouble with it, but it would ahve had zero effoct for 90% or more of them.